聽(tīng)力原文： Most economic forecasts are wrong. And governments usually fail when they try to fine-tune the economics in the short term. That's not surprising, argues Paul Ormerod in his book Butterfly Economics, because few underlying economic theories and models come anywhere near real life. Ormerod, an economist and director of the London Think Tank, has dumped on the blinkered world of mainstream economic thought before, in his book, The Death of Economics. This time, he argues that his colleagues with the dismal science should instead view "society as a living creature, which adapts and learns."

Ormerod calls his approach butterfly economics, in part to stress its link to biology. But it also reflects a principle advanced by chaos theorists that the fluttering of a butterfly's wings can set off a tornado in another part of the globe. Modem economics, he says, are "complex systems which hover on the brink of chaos." But Ormerod could just as easily have titled it Ant Model Economics, because his theories derive from entomologists' experiments with ants in the mid-1980s. Two equal-sized food sources were set equidistant from an ant's nest. How did the colony divide itself between the sources? As it turned out, the proportion of ants visiting one site or the other changed constantly. Sometimes changes were small. Other times, shifts were dramatic and swift. None was predictable. Why? Basically, a foraging ant has three choices: returning to the food source it successfully visited before; being persuaded by other ants, via a scent, to try the other pile; or turning to the humans. People can stick with a previous decision, change their minds on their own accord, or be persuaded by the actions of others.

That people are often influenced by others, the author says, goes a long way toward explaining why some inferior technologies squeeze out superior ones, like VHS videocassette recorders upstaging Betamax VCRS, or why traders continue to buy currencies they know to be overvalued. Popularity breeds popularity. This may all seem obvious. But for economists, it's a revelation. Standard economic theories nearly always assume that people's behavior. and tastes never change -- which helps explain why most theories can't pass a reality check. In real life, chaos -- in the form. of human decision making -- reigns.

The ant model shows that accurate short-term predictions of ant behavior. are impossible. But in long term, there is a pattern to the ants' randomness. And, Ormerod says, so it is with economics, too. Short-term governmental forecasts usually miss the mark. And the abilities of politicians to alter the cycles of business are" largely illusory," he insists. But in the long term, there is some structure. The business cycle, with all its constant ebbing and flowing, may be uncontrollable and defiant of near-term forecasts. But despite its fluctuations, capitalist economies have grown slowly and steadily over time. That means, he says, that policymakers should adopt a less-is-more approach. "The role of governments should be confined to trying to mitigate the consequences of a cycle rather than trying to eliminate it."

Ormerod's effort to persuade orthodox economists to take human behavior. into account more often -- regardless of its unpredictability -- is a worthy goal. Still, it's a bit dispiriting that his foraging ants, like Pavlvov's salivating dogs, depict our behavior. so accurately.

Listen to the following passage. Write in English a short summary of around 150-200 words of what you have heard. You will hear the passage only once and then you will have 25 minutes to finish your summary. This part of the test carries 20 points. You may need to scribble a few notes to write your summary.

聽(tīng)力原文： Most people think their time problems are outer, and that they are caused by the telephone, meetings, visitors, and delayed information or decisions. Although these problems often have a bad effect on them, as when people call or drop in, we usually contribute to them. We fail to have calls screened by a skillful secretary or assistant, or we leave our door open, actually assuring constant interruptions.

In almost all cases, it is possible to influence, if not control, it usually can cause problems, such as, slowness and indecision, lack of self-discipline, the inability to delegate, or the tendency to fight fires, to act without thinking, and to jump from task to task without finishing any of them.

Time is constant that cannot be changed. The clock cannot be slowed down or speeded up. Thus we cannot manage time itself. We can only manage our activities with respect to time.

The same skills are needed as those used in managing others--the abilities to plan, organize, delegate, direct, and control. Time management is simply self-management, It is impossible to be effective in any position without controlling one's time effectively.

Successful time management does not mean working harder, but working smarter. All kinds of management skills must be used in the home and office to get most value from time. You must think ahead about what to do, and timely than others, making it get maximum results in the shortest possible period.

According to the writer, time problems ______.

A．a(chǎn)re caused by the telephone, meetings and visitors

B．a(chǎn)re caused by delayed information or decisions

C．can be solved by self-management

D．can't be controlled

聽(tīng)力原文：Okay, Alan and I are ready to get going. We have the food and most of the supplies, and we've put both kayaks on the roof of your car. You should drive ahead of us—we'll follow closely behind you in case... you know, just in case. I don't think I need to tell you to drive with care—you'll feel the wind swaying your car a little bit, but don't worry: the boats are solidly secured. The main thing for you to be aware of is if we go through any drive-throughs or, I don't know, if you want to pull into a parking garage. Just be aware of the height limits— I think with the boats on top you're about seven feet tall, so be aware of that. Urn... I'll have my cell phone on, so give me a call if you want. I really don't think you'll have any trouble driving the car, just... urn, as I said, drive carefully and be aware of height limits. Okay, see you at the lake!

Where is the speaker going?

A．Skiing

B．Boating

C．Camping

D．Fishing

聽(tīng)力原文： Most ants are hard workers and often work from six in the morning until ten at night. The work is divided among the worker ants so that each one has a certain amount to do. We do not know how they decide what each one is to do, for they do not talk. Some people think ants follow each other by their sense of smell. Ants often live to be a year old, and some have been known to live six or seven years. One way they get their food is from plant insects which we might call their cows. The ants milk these "cows" by tapping the insects gently until a drop of honey comes out. Then they eat the honey. Ants take very good care of these plant insects and often build a covering over them so that they will be protected from the rain.

(30)

A．One.

B．Few.

C．Several.

D．Many.

聽(tīng)力原文： The piano and violin are girls' instruments. Drums and trumpets are for boys. According to psychologists Susan Onco and Michael Balton, children have very clear ideas about which musical instruments they should play. They find that despite the best efforts of teachers these ideas have changed very little over the past decade. They interviewed 153 children aged between 9 and 11 from schools in northwest England. They asked them to identify 4 musical instruments and then to say which they would like to play most and which they would last like to play. They also asked the children for their views on whether boys and girls should not play any of the 4 instruments. The piano and the violin were both ranked more favorably, by girls than by boys, while boys prefer the drums and trumpets. There was broad agreement between boys and girls on which instruments each sex should play and the reasons vary. And while almost half of all boys said they avoided certain instruments because they were too difficult to play, only 15% of girls gave that as a reason. Earlier studies indicated that very young school children aged between 5 and 7 showed no bias in choosing musical instruments, but their tastes become more clear between the ages of 8 and 10.

Why did Susan and Michael interview children aged between 9 and 11?

A．To find out whether they take music lessons in their spare time.

B．To find out whether they can name four different musical instruments.

C．To find out whether they enjoy playing musical instruments in school.

D．To find out whether they differ in their preference for musical instruments.

聽(tīng)力原文：Dr. Green is a pediatric dentist. Most of his patients are children. Children like to come to his office. He tells them about their teeth. He cleans their teeth well. He also takes care of their toothaches and fixes their broken teeth. Then he gives them a small gift.

Dr. Green lives in Olney. That's a small town near Washington,@D@C.. But his dental office is in Washington at 1616 Jefferson Street. He gets up at 6:15 every morning. He eats breakfast at 6:45 and leaves for work at 7:15. He drives to work and keeps his car in a parking lot on Madison Street. He gets to his office at about 8:00.

Dentists earn a lot of money, and they also have a lot of responsibilities.

What is Dr. Green?

A．A psychiatrist.

B．A pediatric dentist.

C．A paediatrician.

聽(tīng)力原文： Most dogs can be taught to tolerate cats if their owners are willing to be patient and consistent. Some dogs take longer to train than others and the difference is usually due to the dog's level of "prey drive".

Nature designed the predators to chase and catch smaller animals for food. Although dogs have been domesticated for thousands of years, they still act upon the instincts nature gave them. Through generations of selective breeding, people have modified these instincts. By decreasing the effects of some and enhancing the effects of others, we've been able to develop a wide variety of different breeds of dogs, each meant to serve a different purpose or perform. a certain function.

A dog's instinct to chase and catch something is called his prey drive. Throw a stuffed toy to a puppy and watch his prey drive in action as he chases it, catches it, and then shakes it to pieces. Breeds and individual dogs vary in the intensity of their prey drives. Some breeds are created specifically for killing other animals. Most terriers, for example, are intended to kill rats and they have very high prey drives.

In other breeds, the prey drive can be altered to suit an entirely different purpose. Therefore, there must be effective ways to train a dog with a high prey drive to live peacefully with cats and other small pets. For example, by giving the dog extra attention and even special treats when the cat is in the room, the dog soon learns that having the cat around means very good things are going to happen to him! He will be happy to get along with the cat harmoniously and his prey drive will be lowered.

(30)

A．Why does the dog like to attack the cat?

B．Can we make peace between dogs and cats and how?

C．The mystery of animal’s prey drive.

D．A better understanding of our dogs.

聽(tīng)力原文： Earthquakes are something that most people fear. There are some places that have few or no earthquakes. Most places in the world, however, have them regularly. Some places, like Iran and Guatemala have them frequently. Countries that have a lot of earthquakes are usually quite mountainous.

The most-talked-about earthquake in the United States was in San Francisco in 1909. Over 500 people died in it. The strongest one in North America was in 1964. It happened in Alaska.

Strong earthquakes are not always the ones that kill the most people. In 1755, one of the strongest earthquakes ever recorded was felt in Portugal. Around 20,000 people died.

In 1923, a very powerful earthquake hit the Tokyo-Yokohama area of Japan. A hundred and forty thousand people died. Most of them died in fires which followed the earthquake.

One of the worst earthquakes ever was in China in 1976. It killed a large number of people. The worst earthquake ever reported was also in China. 400,000 people were killed or injured in this quake, which happened in 1556.

Earthquakes are not the only acts of nature which people fear. Floods and tidal waves also cause people to be afraid. So do bad storms like typhoons and cyclones. Sometimes these things cause lots of deaths. In 1970, a cyclone and tidal wave killed over 200,000 in Pakistan.

These kinds of things make people afraid and they are very dangerous. But they probably do not worry people as much as earthquakes, especially in these modem times. The reason is that we often know they are coming, we have some warning. Someday we may be able to know an earthquake is coming. So far, however, no sure way is known to predict an earthquake. When one comes, it is a surprise. People cannot prepare for it.

(33)

A．Frequently.

B．Occasionally.

C．Seldom.

D．Regularly.

聽(tīng)力原文： Most people are aware, that the earth is a delicate thing, and that it cannot last forever, if we do not take care of it. Apart from the dangers of blowing each other up, there is the problem of pollution of the environment, and the destruction of wild life by hunters.

Many species of whales, for example, are in danger of extinction because of hunters who continue whaling despite the world's attempts to limit the annual catch. Seals are also threatened; and with the increasing use of nuclear power to generate electricity, a new danger has arisen: the pollution of oceans by nuclear waste.

(30)

A．The earth cannot last forever, if we do not take care of it.

B．Hunters are destructing the wildlife.

C．Nuclear power is increasingly used to generate electricity.

D．Nuclear waste kills many seals.

聽(tīng)力原文： Scientists are gearing up for one of the most ambitious international research programs ever attempted: a decade-long exploration of the world's oceans to unlock some of the most closely held secrets of the creatures of the deep. Using sophisticated technology that was not available even five years ago, the scientists will rely primarily on the animals they want to study to collect the data needed to complete the "Census of Marine Life". Creatures ranging from blue whales to turtles will be fitted with satellite tracking devices that will record their every movement. The project, involving scores of institutions around the globe, is expected to cost upwards of $1 billion, and it will take at least 10 years. The scientists hope the research will tell us much more about a region of the earth we understand so poorly. That area, incidentally, covers 70 percent of the globe.

(33)

A．10 years.

B．20 years.

C．30 years.

D．50 years.